(no subject)

[leblon]

 Good news: deaths from COVID-19 no longer grow exponentially. The trend has changed 4 days ago. This sounds reasonable: this is about 2 weeks after stay-at-home orders were issued in the most affected states.

Comments

[leblon]

I do not trust the reported numbers of infected people either, I am sure there are many more than reported. I can readily believe that the actual number is 2-3 times larger. But not 200 times larger!

[alexanderr]

right. the numbers can be off even 10 times or 20 times. 200 times is hard to imagine, I agree.
I do not think the official numbers are only off by a factor of 2 or 3, that would be
an amazing level of precision