(no subject)

[leblon]

Интересный взгляд на современность от профессора истории IAS.

Вкратце: основные процессы сейчас - это возрождение исламского мира и давление его на Запад, попытки восстановления Советского Союза, и возрождение национализма и изоляционизма США и стран Западной Европы. В среднесрочной перспективе вероятен распад Евросоюза, основным бенефициаром чего станет Россия и в меньшей степени США. В ближайшей перспективе очень вероятна торговая война между США и Китаем, побочный эффект которой будет замирение США с Россией, а интересы стран Евросоюза будут принесены в жертву этому замирению.

Comments

[poslushnik.livejournal.com]

Similar things are predicted by others:

http://us11.campaign-archive2.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=f1e84c0510

http://us11.campaign-archive1.com/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=3a19c4ece6

Some say the thaw in relations with Russia will be superficial though: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/russia-us-relations-in-2017/

In particular, the US does not really need Russia for trade war with China, and Russia on its part can offer little in such war (there were recent comments by Illarionov exactly about this).

[leblon.livejournal.com]

I tend to agree that USA does not need Russian cooperation as far as China is concerned. Trump's desire to appease Putin has nothing to do with it, and is probably explained by other factors (like financial debt to Russia, or kompromat). But the trade war with China may be used as an excuse for lifting sanctions on Russia.

[poslushnik.livejournal.com]

Yeah the biggest danger seems to be that Trump will be fooled into cooperation with Russia while no actual cooperation will take place. On foreign policy Trump seems to have become more reasonable since the election though: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/trumps-conventional-foreign-policy/

In the near future I fear Putin will test Trump by actually starting the campaign to cut a land bridge to Crimea. I'd guess Summer is the most likely time for this. I do not think Trump's response will be null, but I do not know if it will be strong enough to stop the military campaign.

[leblon.livejournal.com]

What do you think about the situation in Avdeevka, btw? Is it Putin trying to test Trump's response?

[poslushnik.livejournal.com]

Yes ...