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Elections 2016
Nov. 4th, 2016 01:55 pmI would like to record a few thoughts about the upcoming presidential elections. I am really appalled about the fact that a large number of Anericans are going to vote for Donald Trump, and that he has a real chance to win. Although Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate, I want her to win (I am voting for the Libertarian candidate, as I did in 2012, but it is clear that he has no real chance this year, so realistically it is either Hillary or Trump).
0. Why Hillary rather than Trump, despite all the revelations about her? First of all, let me say that the hacked emails released by Wikileaks are not nearly as damaging as some people make them out to be. The most damaging thing which came out of them was that the leadership of the Democratic Party, despite pretending to be impartial, was working behind the scenes to give the nomination to Hilary. This is pretty bad, but it is mostly a reflection on the culture of the Democratic Party, not Hillary herself, and should mostly matter to Democrats. Neither I regard the "private email server' as the most damaging thing. Yes, it was gross negligence, but so far I did not see any evidence that it caused any harm to American national security. It does not evoke moral outrage in me, because it is not a "crime of moral turpitude". No, the worst thing that I learned about Clinton, or rather Clintons, is that they got rich by accepting huge "speaking fees" from all kinds of sources, some of them rather dubious, even when Hillary was a Secretary of State. Now, I did not see evidence of quid pro quo, but it raises a question: why would anyone pay this much for speeches if one did not expect to get special treatment from the US goveernment? The fact that neither Hillary nor Bill saw any problem with this is deeply disturbing. The same applies to the Clinton Foundation. Although this is not Bill and Hillary's private money, and the Foundation apparently does very good work around the world, how could they think that it was OK to accept money from foreign governments while Hillary was working in the US government? This is conflict of interest, at the very least, and maybe even corruption. For all these reasons, if anyone but Trump was running against Hillary (say, Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich), the choice would be clear. But it is Trump, not Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich.
1. Now I want to explain why I fear and loath Trump so much that I'd rather Hillary win, despite all of the above. I will start with his presonality. In brief, he acts and behaves as a thug with a narcisstic personality disorder. That is, he only cares about himself and his own well-being, respects nobody, cares for no moral principles, and does whatever he can get away with to further his goals. His lack of respect for anyone was clear from his treatment of John McCain, who fought in Vietnam while Trump escaped the draft for a spuriois medical reason. His complete lack of moral principles became clear a bit later, when it became known that he regularly stiffed his contractors after they delivered their services using the fact that he could afford high-powered lawyers, and they could not. His Billy Bush tape confirmed that he feels he can sexually harass and assault women if he can get away with it. (And please don't tell me that Bill Clinton did this too: if things like that came to light in 1991 when Clinton was running for president, he would never have been elected.) Now, I loath thugs. This is one of the reasons I dislike Putin so much: he is a thug-in-chief. And Trump certainly wants to become someone like Putin. Or perhaps a cross between Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov, since Putin is more restrained in public than Trump. It would be deeply embarassing to have Trump as the face of the United States for the next four years. (And again, it was embarassing when Bill Clinton sexual indiscretions came to light, but this does not even come close to the embarassment of electing a man who openly bragged about forcing himself on women).
2. Having explained why I loath Trump, let me explain why I believe he is not just a despicable person, but is truly dangerous. The first thing he promises to do is to rip up NAFTA and other trade deals and declare a trade war on China. If this happens, this will have very grave consequences for the American economy. Thanks to NAFTA, parts and wares travel freely between USA, Canada and Mexico. If NAFTA is repealed, supply chains in USA will be disrupted. When they are reestablished, productivity will drop, and American products will become less competitive. (This is why I predict that stock market will drop significantly if Trump is elected). The other thing that Trump is famous for is blaming immigrants for America's problems. This is why white supremacists support him, and this is why white middle-class and working Americans vote for him. Trump already emboldened xenophobes all around the United States, and will get much worse if he is elected. Racial tensions will inevitably rise, as Trump supporters will feel that they have a license to express their xenophobia in actions. In foreign policy, Trump showed complete lack of understanding that US needs the support of its allies, and thus needs to support them in return. Especially troubling is his insistence that American support of its NATO allies is conditional on whether they "pay their fair share". Finally, not only Trump repeatedly showed that he has no interest in learning the intricacies of various issues, he repeatedly showed that he has no interest in learning the basic facts about the issues. His opinions are dictated by what his gut tells him his supporters will like. Thus global climate change becomes a hoax invented by the Chinese, the crime in USA, it turns out, is out of control, and USA is "losing everywhere" (did he bother to check how many Americans won the Nobel prize over the last 25 years, for example?) This complete lack of understanding that facts matter is plain scary.
3. Now, some say that Republicans in Congress will stop Trump from doing anything truly foolish. Don't hold your breath for it. Trump has a strong support among the Republican base, and a Republican politician who wants to oppose Trump should expect a violent backlash. In this situation, no more than a handful Republican lawmakers will be brave enough to do this. We already saw how quickly they fell in line after the initial shock of the Billy Bush tape. Short of doing something obviously criminal, Trump has a carte blanche.
4. Finally, I am deeply troubled by Trump's obvious desire to please Putin and, conversely, Putin's support for Trump (I mean first and foremost the hacking of emails and their release through Wikilieaks: the evidence that Putin had a hand in it is very strong). There is no obvious upside in Trump's unwillingness to criticize Putin. This unwillingness goes quite far: Trump flatly contradicted his own running mate regarding Russia policy, and his people insisted on changing the Republican party platform in a way which benefits Putin. What the hell is going on? I doubt that we would find out an answer to this in Trump's tax returns. While it is tempting to speculate that Trump simply sold himself to Putin as a way to get out of financial troubles, the evidence is not to be found in his tax return, or FBI would already be on his tail. Most likely, he is hiding his tax returns because he is much less rich than he claims, and also because he was involved in dubious tax-evasion schemes. (Although it boggles my mind that his supporters give him a pass on this). But I think the only logical explanation for Trump's "love" for Putin is that Trump is in some way "on the hook", either financially or in some other way. (Would you be surprised if Trump's sexual indiscretions extended to having sex with underage girls? I would not). Now, why is it bad? Shouldn't USA and Russia live in peace and harmony? (irony intended). My answer is, there are only two ways to achieve this. Either the future President will let Putin know that USA will respond forcefully to any attempt to harm its allies, whether they are part of NATO or not, and help them in every way, or Putin will be given a free hand in Eastern Europe. It is pretty clear that if Trump is elected, the second option will be realized. I don't know what Putin will do if given a free hand, but I would not be surprised if he actually tried to annex eastern parts of Ukraine, as well as parts of Baltic states and perhaps even Finland. He could also try to install friendly regimes in other neighboring countries, using a combination of sticks and carrots. It would be tragic if the postmodern version of the Orwellian regime currently existing in Russia extended its grasp to other nations.
5. Finally, I find it appalling that so many people on the right are willing to sacrifice their principles just to defeat Hillary and all that she symbolizes. This opportunism will not end well for them. The United States is experiencing a demographic shift: soon enough whites will not be the majority. One can say that this election is the last stand of the white majority. They do have legitimate grievances, but unfortunately they chose Donald Trump as their standard-bearer, thereby empowering the most xenophobic elements among them. Those conservatives who think that Trump's election will bring about a conservaive revolution are deceiving themselves: a conservative revolution is an oxymoron. Rather, his election will bring about a deeper division between different racial groups (it is already pretty bad), and the trumpists are going to lose in the long run (for example, because political movements which ignore facts are not going to be successful). But it will be much harder to defend conservative principles after they have been associated with Trump. A pricnipled conservative would vote for Johnson, or anyone else but Trump.
0. Why Hillary rather than Trump, despite all the revelations about her? First of all, let me say that the hacked emails released by Wikileaks are not nearly as damaging as some people make them out to be. The most damaging thing which came out of them was that the leadership of the Democratic Party, despite pretending to be impartial, was working behind the scenes to give the nomination to Hilary. This is pretty bad, but it is mostly a reflection on the culture of the Democratic Party, not Hillary herself, and should mostly matter to Democrats. Neither I regard the "private email server' as the most damaging thing. Yes, it was gross negligence, but so far I did not see any evidence that it caused any harm to American national security. It does not evoke moral outrage in me, because it is not a "crime of moral turpitude". No, the worst thing that I learned about Clinton, or rather Clintons, is that they got rich by accepting huge "speaking fees" from all kinds of sources, some of them rather dubious, even when Hillary was a Secretary of State. Now, I did not see evidence of quid pro quo, but it raises a question: why would anyone pay this much for speeches if one did not expect to get special treatment from the US goveernment? The fact that neither Hillary nor Bill saw any problem with this is deeply disturbing. The same applies to the Clinton Foundation. Although this is not Bill and Hillary's private money, and the Foundation apparently does very good work around the world, how could they think that it was OK to accept money from foreign governments while Hillary was working in the US government? This is conflict of interest, at the very least, and maybe even corruption. For all these reasons, if anyone but Trump was running against Hillary (say, Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich), the choice would be clear. But it is Trump, not Rubio, Cruz, or Kasich.
1. Now I want to explain why I fear and loath Trump so much that I'd rather Hillary win, despite all of the above. I will start with his presonality. In brief, he acts and behaves as a thug with a narcisstic personality disorder. That is, he only cares about himself and his own well-being, respects nobody, cares for no moral principles, and does whatever he can get away with to further his goals. His lack of respect for anyone was clear from his treatment of John McCain, who fought in Vietnam while Trump escaped the draft for a spuriois medical reason. His complete lack of moral principles became clear a bit later, when it became known that he regularly stiffed his contractors after they delivered their services using the fact that he could afford high-powered lawyers, and they could not. His Billy Bush tape confirmed that he feels he can sexually harass and assault women if he can get away with it. (And please don't tell me that Bill Clinton did this too: if things like that came to light in 1991 when Clinton was running for president, he would never have been elected.) Now, I loath thugs. This is one of the reasons I dislike Putin so much: he is a thug-in-chief. And Trump certainly wants to become someone like Putin. Or perhaps a cross between Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov, since Putin is more restrained in public than Trump. It would be deeply embarassing to have Trump as the face of the United States for the next four years. (And again, it was embarassing when Bill Clinton sexual indiscretions came to light, but this does not even come close to the embarassment of electing a man who openly bragged about forcing himself on women).
2. Having explained why I loath Trump, let me explain why I believe he is not just a despicable person, but is truly dangerous. The first thing he promises to do is to rip up NAFTA and other trade deals and declare a trade war on China. If this happens, this will have very grave consequences for the American economy. Thanks to NAFTA, parts and wares travel freely between USA, Canada and Mexico. If NAFTA is repealed, supply chains in USA will be disrupted. When they are reestablished, productivity will drop, and American products will become less competitive. (This is why I predict that stock market will drop significantly if Trump is elected). The other thing that Trump is famous for is blaming immigrants for America's problems. This is why white supremacists support him, and this is why white middle-class and working Americans vote for him. Trump already emboldened xenophobes all around the United States, and will get much worse if he is elected. Racial tensions will inevitably rise, as Trump supporters will feel that they have a license to express their xenophobia in actions. In foreign policy, Trump showed complete lack of understanding that US needs the support of its allies, and thus needs to support them in return. Especially troubling is his insistence that American support of its NATO allies is conditional on whether they "pay their fair share". Finally, not only Trump repeatedly showed that he has no interest in learning the intricacies of various issues, he repeatedly showed that he has no interest in learning the basic facts about the issues. His opinions are dictated by what his gut tells him his supporters will like. Thus global climate change becomes a hoax invented by the Chinese, the crime in USA, it turns out, is out of control, and USA is "losing everywhere" (did he bother to check how many Americans won the Nobel prize over the last 25 years, for example?) This complete lack of understanding that facts matter is plain scary.
3. Now, some say that Republicans in Congress will stop Trump from doing anything truly foolish. Don't hold your breath for it. Trump has a strong support among the Republican base, and a Republican politician who wants to oppose Trump should expect a violent backlash. In this situation, no more than a handful Republican lawmakers will be brave enough to do this. We already saw how quickly they fell in line after the initial shock of the Billy Bush tape. Short of doing something obviously criminal, Trump has a carte blanche.
4. Finally, I am deeply troubled by Trump's obvious desire to please Putin and, conversely, Putin's support for Trump (I mean first and foremost the hacking of emails and their release through Wikilieaks: the evidence that Putin had a hand in it is very strong). There is no obvious upside in Trump's unwillingness to criticize Putin. This unwillingness goes quite far: Trump flatly contradicted his own running mate regarding Russia policy, and his people insisted on changing the Republican party platform in a way which benefits Putin. What the hell is going on? I doubt that we would find out an answer to this in Trump's tax returns. While it is tempting to speculate that Trump simply sold himself to Putin as a way to get out of financial troubles, the evidence is not to be found in his tax return, or FBI would already be on his tail. Most likely, he is hiding his tax returns because he is much less rich than he claims, and also because he was involved in dubious tax-evasion schemes. (Although it boggles my mind that his supporters give him a pass on this). But I think the only logical explanation for Trump's "love" for Putin is that Trump is in some way "on the hook", either financially or in some other way. (Would you be surprised if Trump's sexual indiscretions extended to having sex with underage girls? I would not). Now, why is it bad? Shouldn't USA and Russia live in peace and harmony? (irony intended). My answer is, there are only two ways to achieve this. Either the future President will let Putin know that USA will respond forcefully to any attempt to harm its allies, whether they are part of NATO or not, and help them in every way, or Putin will be given a free hand in Eastern Europe. It is pretty clear that if Trump is elected, the second option will be realized. I don't know what Putin will do if given a free hand, but I would not be surprised if he actually tried to annex eastern parts of Ukraine, as well as parts of Baltic states and perhaps even Finland. He could also try to install friendly regimes in other neighboring countries, using a combination of sticks and carrots. It would be tragic if the postmodern version of the Orwellian regime currently existing in Russia extended its grasp to other nations.
5. Finally, I find it appalling that so many people on the right are willing to sacrifice their principles just to defeat Hillary and all that she symbolizes. This opportunism will not end well for them. The United States is experiencing a demographic shift: soon enough whites will not be the majority. One can say that this election is the last stand of the white majority. They do have legitimate grievances, but unfortunately they chose Donald Trump as their standard-bearer, thereby empowering the most xenophobic elements among them. Those conservatives who think that Trump's election will bring about a conservaive revolution are deceiving themselves: a conservative revolution is an oxymoron. Rather, his election will bring about a deeper division between different racial groups (it is already pretty bad), and the trumpists are going to lose in the long run (for example, because political movements which ignore facts are not going to be successful). But it will be much harder to defend conservative principles after they have been associated with Trump. A pricnipled conservative would vote for Johnson, or anyone else but Trump.
